INSIGHTS & NEWS
The Forecasting Illusion
There are many different ways to view stock markets, many different ways to analyze them and many different ways to buy and sell stocks. Yet there seems to be no bigger quest than to come up with the perfect forecasting method. People spend countless days, months and even years analyzing data in an attempt to find patterns or trends and develop forecasts. Whether it be economic indicators such as industrial production or CPI, stock market measures such as earnings revisions or moving averages, or highly sophisticated algorithms studying complexity and chaos theories, people are on a never-ending search for the illusive holy grail of investing; the one model that will accurately predict when the market will go up or down.